Saturday, October 31, 2009

Atkins fits for many reasons...

Of course I want a big name, power hitting 1B and I'd be a fool to not want the report that Adrian Gonzalez has been left off the Padres brochure to mean that he's available with the Mets having a chance to get him.

But I'm also trying to be realistic, which is why I've taken to heart the reports that the Mets are going to look smaller at the position and go with a right handed platoon partner for Dan Murphy.

The name that seems to be a perfect fit, for that type of situation is Ryan Garko who has been rumored to be a non-tender candidate by the Giants, but Garko isn't the only player who would fit the bill.

Buster Olney in an ESPN insider report on the potential non-tender candidates discussed a guy who has been brought up before in regards to the Mets and is believed to be available, Garrett Atkins.

A classic example of this is a 29-year-old player who has had three seasons of 99 or more RBIs: Garrett Atkins, the Rockies third baseman who slumped badly in 2009, hitting .226 with a .650 OPS. He earned $7.05 million last season, and he could be in line to make $8 million to $10 million if the Rockies were to offer him arbitration. source ESPN

Ok, lets look at the negatives of acquiring Atkins who would basically be filling Fernando Tatis' spot on the roster as the back-up corner infielder. Along with whatever marginal prospects it cost in trade, he would cost somewhere around 8M for a player coming off a slump year in which he hit .229. That slump came at a hitter friendly park and his splits home/away have always favored Colorado. Why do I say trade instead waiting for him to be non-tendered, because your moving him from his primary position and there's always a risk that he wouldn't sign as a free agent for such an assignment.

I still say the reward out weighs the risk, aside from being younger ( 29 y/o), batting right handed and having experience at the position we need filled, here are some others things to think about...

1) Atkins despite being a 3B has 105 major league games at 1B immediately making him the most experienced player on our team at his secondary position. Originally a 1B in college he converted to 3B during his collegiate career. He has the defensive skills to be a starter but if it was a strict platoon he would be a late inning defensive replacement.

2) He has more positive offensive history then negative, he's been a starter for five years and in his first four full time seasons he hit .287 or better with 89 or more RBIs and for three of those seasons he hit 21 or more home runs. His career year came in 2006 when he ranked 15th on the MVP voting with a .329 BA, 29 Hrs and 120 RBIs.

3) Even in this lost offensive year where he hit only .226 with 48 RBIs and 9 HRs, he hit left handed pitching much better which as a platoon partner with Murphy would be all that was asked of him. Against LHP he hit .268 with a .428 Slg. pct., .363 OBP and .790 OPS ( 22 RBIs, 5 HRs, 5 doubles).

4) The Mets need to get smarter more fundamentally sound players, Atkins pedigree is impeccable, playing High school ball at University High School of Irvine and then becoming the first three time All-American at UCLA.

5) Entering his sixth year in the majors this is his last arbitration year, meaning that he is a short term solution at first base who will not be blocking Ike Davis in 2011 if he is ready for the majors.

6) The Mets lack legitimate depth behind David Wright at 3B, unless you consider Fernando Tatis a capable option if Wright goes down there isn't a prospect at the AAA level ready to fill-in at the spot. Not only does Atkins fill a hole we currently have at 1B but he also provides legitimate depth at a position were lacking depth at 3B.

7) Atkins could see the writing on the wall that Colorado was hoping Ian Stewart was ready to take his spot and part of the slump could be attributed to that situation making him a classic change of scenery player.

8) Omar should be familiar with the scouting report on Atkins as the Mets drafted him in 1997 out of high school when Omar was an assistant with the club but he opted for college.

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