If I made a wish list for this off-season it would include three new positional starters;1) A veteran catcher known for developing young pitchers who also has a decent bat.
2) A power hitting first baseman.
3) A solid hitting left fielder with above average fielding.
I know we'll probably only get one of them; I'm guessing the Mets will sign a journeyman catcher to platoon with Santos and then sign/trade for one big bat. They will fill the other position from within, which means that either Dan Murphy is our 1B or Angel Pagan is the LF.
Murphy became a starter based on 49 games last year when he hit over .300, many Mets fans are already willing to give Murph another shot at starting based on a 55 game hot streak to end this season, despite hitting .220 with a .300 OBP and a .320 Slg. Pct. for three months. The biggest problem is that when Murphy struggles he brings nothing else to the table, he's not a true power threat ( even when Delgado hit .220 you always had to worry about a bad pitch), his defense is suspect and he has no speed.
Angel Pagan's numbers have been good and consistent throughout the entire season, he's basically hit .300 every month that he's played this year. Not only has his bat been much more consistent but he also brings other skills to the table. His speed allows him to lead off, steal bases and provide good range in the outfield. Basically Pagan's instincts have many fans ruling him a 4th outfielder while Murphy is getting a pass for his grittiness, despite Pagan's skill base greatly outweighing Murphy's.
Citi Field's dimensions demand that all three outfielders have great range and are solid fielders, it's very rare for a true power hitting LF to also be a great fiedler. Therefore, if the Mets are only bringing in one big bat it would make sense for that to be at 1B while they use Pagan in LF.
Of course, I rather have two big bats at both positions and just out hit the opposition to compensate for the defensive weaknesses but I just don't see that happening.
Through free agency there's only one left fielder who would provide both defense and significant offense, that would be Matt Holliday, who I believe will stay in St. Louis. But if the Mets somehow obtain Holliday I would have no problem with Murphy at first.
But the other player I've heard mentioned often in reference to left field is Jason Bay, I like Bay but if that means we keep Murphy at 1B, I don't understand how Bay is enough. He's a below average defender and only a .280 hitter, will his 30-35 home runs make up for his lower BA, poor defense and Murphy at 1B.
I will say this Bay is the only left fielder that an argument can be made for having enough offense to compensate for Murphy at 1B and poor left field defense, I don't believe any of the other left fielders available will be enough. To me the 1B trade market seems to be the best route...
He has 36 homers and a .266/.385/.538 line that overshadows his 159 strikeouts and below average defense (according to UZR/150). A return to Boston appears to be a "legitimate possibility," but other teams will have interest if the two sides can't agree to a deal.
As Speier notes, the Angels, Cardinals, Giants, Mariners, Mets, White Sox and Yankees could all have interest in Bay and the resources to sign him. source MLBTR
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