Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Injury updates- FMart, Murphy and Evans..

Adam Rubin at ESPN NY has the full story here, it doesn't appear that any of the examinations revealed anything significant.

Murph has a hamstring strain, FMart has mild arthritis in his knee and Evans follow-up shoulder exam to a late season injury showed no change.  So the course of events will be to rest Murph, strengthen the muscles around the knee and resume tolerable baseball activities for Evans. 

Here's a few quick thoughts; I hope Evans gets a fair shake under this new group because he didn't seem to get one under the last.  Murphy seems to be injured as much as FMart why no label on him (expectations?), is it my ignorance to the medical condition or does 21-22 seem young for arthritis and could it mean an underlying problem. 

Green optimistic about being tendered...


Sean Green
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
I don't have the animosity towards Sean Green that many Mets fans have, he seems to have spent two years trying to figure himself out and I wonder where this guy went.

As that post indicates, when we got Green he was considered a workhorse who could eventually set-up and teams were calling the Mets for him.

He's changed his arm angle, battled injuries and if I had to guess struggled with confidence in a large market, still with the state of the bullpen and the budget it makes sense to keep Green.

He has experience, he's cheap and he has an option left, it actually makes less sense to cut him then to keep him...

Feliciano declines Arby..


Pedro Feliciano 2
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
I think it's safe to say that the reports this weekend about Pedro Feliciano accepting arbitration were his agent gauging the market. At 36 y/o this is Pedro's last chance at a multi-year payday and I think He'll get it.

For the Mets, the thing is he's a LOOGY and I can't see giving him that deal with the workload he's carried. Had he proven himself a set-up man this past season, which is what he attempted to do then I could see committing to that type of deal...

Left-handed reliever Pedro Feliciano has declined an offer of arbitration from the Mets, a source confirmed Tuesday, reducing the likelihood he will return to New York. source MLB.com




Could Manny Alvarez make the Mets pen

At the beginning of the month the Mets added 24y/o right handed relief pitcher Manuel Alvarez to the  40man roster.  To many of us major league fans our response was who, after all the best Alvarez does is an honorable mention on Sickel's list and a #17 on Mack's Mets.

But prior to 2010 he hadn't turned many heads of the guys who follow the minors, whatever adjustment he made definitely has made a difference. 

Alvarez shows up on the radar with the Nats in 2006 in the GCL where he appeared in 14 games with an ERA of 2.79.  The Nats didn't keep him and the Mets signed him in 2007, where they made the odd placement of putting him in the Venezuelan summer league. It would be the only time in his career that he would start making 11 with a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 4.29 in 56 innings. 

The next season (2008) he was assigned to Kingsport, struggling in the lower levels of the minors at an advanced age for that league is usually the death of a pitching career.  At 22 y/o in rookie ball he posted a 6.59 ERA in 17 appearances but it was also the year they started grooming him to close, 13 of those app. were game finishes and he recorded 3 saves.  In 2009 he was moved to St. Lucie appearing in 39 games to an ERA of 5.09, 21 were game finishes with 9 saves. 

Then came 2010; whether it was adjustments, confidence in the closers role or he was a late bloomer.  Alvarez ascended through three levels of the minor leagues all in late inning situations and was successful.  He was nominated to rep. PSL in the mid-season ASG but was already in AA ball.  He only made four appearances in AAA in which he gave up four runs which produced an ERA of 6.00.  Overall he appeared in 56 games (A+, AA, AAA) 38 were game finishes, 17 were saves and he produced an ERA of 2.17/ WHIP 0.85. 

By mid-season Amazin Ave. recognized him as on the rise.  Now Baseball America feels he could contribute this year in the Mets pen, it would be a drastic jump but he's such a late bloomer it would catch him up to his peers.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Reports of Young close premature ?

Andy Martino of the Daily News reports that rumors of the Mets closing in on a deal for Chris Young may have been premature.  While Buster Olney is hearing the Mets are closing in, Martino's sources say nothing is close.  Well there goes the first buzz kill of the off-season, I think Young would be a great addition as a low risk high reward in a park that matches his style. 

Chris Young and the Mets appear to fit one another for several reasons, but a source with knowledge of the situation said tonight that “nothing was close at this time” between the parties. source Daily News

Rumor: Mets pursuing SP Chris Young

If this comes to fruition it would be an excellent first signing by the new front office. 

The 31 y/o right hander has had several seasons that were injured plagued which will bring his price down, but when he is able to make his starts still shows signs of the All-Star caliber pitcher.  In 2007 he missed several starts in Aug. due to a oblique injury but still ended up leading the league with lowest hits per nine and opponents OBP.  2008 he was hit in the face by a comebacker that cost him sometime and then in 2009 his shoulder issues began.  In August 2009 he was on the DL with shoulder inflammation when he was found to have tears in his labrum requiring season ending arthroscopic surgery. Second game of the 2010 season he was pulled with a right shoulder strain which cost him all but the last three starts of the season in which he went 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA.

Prior to 2007 and between his stints on the DL Young has been one of the best pitchers in the league, his first two full time seasons (2005-2006) he won double digit games (11/12) and posted an ERA 3.80 with an All Star appearance.  Overall in seven seasons he has a career record of 48-34 with an ERA 3.80 and a WHIP 1.20. 

Alderson has history with Young, in his first off-season as CEO of the Padres Kevin Towers Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka and minor league catcher Billy Killian for Young, Termel Sledge and Adrian Gonzalez.


I have a message for Mr. Howard

Your sales department also needs an overhaul and change of philosophy.

Now I'm not a Wilpon basher I truly believe they try to put a winning product on the field, they are loyal to a fault and sometimes get in their own way but even in the darkest days of this franchise under them ( '04'/'10') I still believe they care about the Mets and aren't just trying to earn a profit.

I had never even heard of Mr. Howard until he was on WFAN at the end of the 2009 season and like many fans to me he came off as condescending and arrogant.  Since then, despite the negative perception of him, that many I have spoken to received, he seems to have taken a more prominent role in the organization. 

Now I don't know Mr. Howard from Adam he may be a great guy, but I have this perception of him from that show and it seems like anything regarding my ticket plan has his name at the bottom.  Since I had such a negative experience last off-season and his name is signed on the bottom of my ticket plan information my negative opinion of him has been re-enforced. 

Ok, what happened last year; In 2009 I started purchasing the 15 game ticket plan, for me it's easier to purchase tickets up front and then plan my schedule around those games, when I buy on an at game basis I end up going to less games.  Last year I called to renew my plan but wanted to change my seats and the office was very accommodating, I moved from 528 which was obstructed view seats to 524 which were excellent seats. 

The phone call took place after Bay was signed and while Molina/Piniero rumors were swirling, I was already buying tickets and didn't need a hard sale, although I think the sales person thought I was interested in upgrading to section 523.  The very next section over, which was empty the entire season was $100 more per seat, per plan. Once he said that, I immediately told him it was out of my price range.  The salesman went on to tell me in a hinting manner, paraphrasing;  your lucky to be getting your tickets now I think fans are going to be very happy with this roster and those aren't the only two were getting, in about a week would could have three big players. 

No nothing he said was matter of fact, no specifics were said and if he was ever called on it he could have clearly said he was just talking his opinion with another Mets fan while he was waiting for my order to be processed.  But it was also clearly a hard sale in an attempt to get me to upgrade while getting the rumor mill buzzing ( during small talk again waiting for processing I had disclosed earlier in the conversation I was the owner of Mets Fever).  It's funny that processing took a very long time until he was absolutely sure I wasn't upgrading then the order was suddenly done.

Listen I understand sales, if you have a high end product that your not concerned with repeat sales then you have to hard sell it; look at car salesmen, realtor's and the tech. industry to name a few.  But the Mets are essentially an up-scale grocery store, they absolutely rely on repeat customers. Now with SNY, quite frankly it's not the same as when they were on WWOR, when they knew fans would come out no matter what they did. 

So this off-season based on that interaction I was adamant that I would not renew my ticket plan on principle alone, my way of saying "Don't F**king try to manipulate me" at that time if somebody said hey Bay is all your getting deal with it, I was still buying the tickets.  However, I'm a fan and seeing all of this organizational change I was actually softening my position. Yes, even though I know this is probably an 80 win team I was considering renewing my plan and even curious to see what the reportedly reduced prices would be. 

Then I received my renewal letter from Mr. Howard and of all the positive things about discounts along with the moves the organization is making, went out the window in one sentence. It stood out because it reference increases and a deadline ( hard sale).  Basically get your tickets now before all the cheap seats are gone and you have to pay an increase.  Know your market; deadlines and the word increase are two things that should not be in any letter in which your addressing your customers after the last four seasons. My tickets are nose bleed seats and I probably wouldn't be effected, but it rub me the wrong way after the experience I had last season and while the rest or the org. seems to be changing, at least in my opinion the sales dept. doesn't appear to have fully understood the memo...

As you might have recently heard, we have on average, reduced 2011 Mets single game ticket prices from 2010 and introduced special discounts for our Ticket Plan Holders. As a result, many of our 15-Game Plan Holders will receive significantly lower invoices for 2011. However, a limited number of Plan Holders will see modest increases of up to $25 per seat on their total invoice amount. We will accommodate those plan holders who pay in full or select the on-line payment plan option by the December 22, 2010 deadline with Citi Field gift cards equal to the amount of any increase in your invoice from 2010, ensuring that every renewing plan holder will pay no more than last season.

Wilmer Flores after out 5 weeks on fire in return...


Wilmer Flores 1
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
Wilmer Flores is the next infield star in the Mets farm system, depending on how long the 18y/o still in A+ ball takes, will probably dictate what position he plays.

I've heard some say he'll out grow SS and be moved to 3B while others would like to see a homegrown infield of Davis, Flores, Reyes and Wright, if he can move up fast enough before the vets are gone.

He sits a top the Mets prospect list on Jon Sickels of Minor league Ball.

Toby Hyde just covered Flores in a great post on SS depth.

Adam Rubin reports that Flores was out with a hamstring injury and since returning has hit in all the games he played in ...

FMart limping badly
















I'm starting to think FMart is one of those kids who will never reach his potential due to injuries.

I said the other day he's starting to remind me of Alex Ochoa..

Jon Heyman passed on a tweet today that FMart was seen in NY limping badly...

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Looking at roster status - Arby, tender/non-tender, controlable players

Thursday is the non-tender deadline for players with 3-6 years of service time, these are players who are out of options but are still under control.  If the player is non-tendered they immediately become a free agent, a player who is tendered a contract for 2011 has the off-season to negotiate a one year deal or both sides accept the ruling of an arbitrator.

Adam Rubin discussed the two main non-tender candidates in which he believes Sean Green will stay at least to start spring training while John Maine appears to be a goner.  There are three other players who are no-brainers to be tendered; R.A. Dickey is in his last controlled year; Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey both are arbitration eligible as well. For a full list See this page of Cots Contracts.

The following players are under control and still have options, players with 1 day- 3years of major league service time; Manny Acosta, Dillon Gee, Jennry Mejia, Pat Misch, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell,  Tobi Stoner, Mike Nickeas, Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Nick Evans, Luis Hernandez,  Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner,  Chris Carter, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez and Jason Pridie.

As I said this group has options and costs you really nothing, the only reason to cut these guys is if you see no value in them or you need the roster space, I think they'll all stick around unless roster space gets tight.  Right now the roster is at 38 if they need more then two spots here are the guys I think should worry; Manny Acosta, Tobi Stoner, Luis Hernandez and Jason Pridie.

The Mets added five players to the 40man who have never been in the majors but needed roster protection from the rule V draft; Manuel Alvarez, Armondo Rodriguez, Josh Stinson, Zach Lutz, and Jordany Valdespin.

Veteran players under contract are Oliver Perez, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran.  The only players with contracts for 2012 are Johan, Wright and Bay; KRod and Reyes have options while the others are free agents. Castillo's deal is reasonable enough to absorb but any others probably need to be traded to remove.

Ryota Igarashi signed a two year deal, I'm not sure if it has an out like Takahashi's or after 2011 he's just a third year player. 

Of the free agent players the only one offered arbitration was Pedro Feliciano who is a type B player he has until Tues to either accept arbitration or the Mets will be awarded a sandwich pick for compensation. Kelvim Escobar, Elmer Dessens, Fernando Tatis, and Henry Blanco all are now free agents without any strings to the Mets.

In AAA here is a list of the free agents from Buffalo's roster last year; Chad Cordero, Brian Bruney,Yhency Brazoban, J.R. House, Andy Green, Russ Adams, Alex Cintron, Jesus Feliciano, Raul Valdes, Jonathan Malo, Michael O'Connor ( resigned), Mike Cervenak, Jack Egbert, Omir Santos, and Mike Hessman.

Here's something interesting Eddie Kunz was outrighted on 11/4 to AAA Buffalo had he refused assignment he would have been a free agent but he like the other veterans being removed from the 40man roster accepted assignment.  Two days later Feliciano, Hessman, Santos and Valdes all became free agents, Kunz because he didn't have six years in the minors is now a Buffalo Bison not on the 40man. 

Valentino Pascucci is the only veteran left on the Buffalo roster, Val came back mid-season my guess is that it was a one year deal meaning it could end midway through 2011 if not restructured. 

Beltran's contract might not be that hard to move...


Carlos Beltran swings
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
It was reported earlier this off-season that Carlos Beltran would waive his no-trade clause if that was what the team chose to do.

There is a great debate amongst Mets fans as to what to do to with Beltran beyond the simple trade or keep him; stay in center or move  to right, trade him now or wait to the deadline...

Many have come to the conclusion that Beltran will be unmovable without eating a large chunk of his contract and the Mets may not be in the financial situation to do that this season. Beltran's contract might be easier then thought to move or for the Mets to accept eating a portion, if they decide to move him.

It's true Beltran is due 18.5MM for the 2011 season however according to Cots contract 5.5MM of that is deferred with compounding interest, but there are no specifics on when it matures.

So the Mets and the interested team could effectively be working on the premise that they are dealing with a 13.0MM contract and worry about the rest later. That could cost the Mets much less in financial considerations during the trade and even if they kept the responsibility for the deferred salary it would be paid when the Mets are in a better financial situation.

$5M at signing 1/05, $2M 6/15/05, $2M 1/15/06, $2M 1/15/07
05:$10M, 06:$12M, 07:$12M, 08:$18.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M
full no-trade clause
$22M ($5.5M annually from 2008-11 salaries) deferred at 1.72% compounded interest
club agreed to not offer arbitration after 2011 season
source Cots Contract
If the Mets sent 5MM with Beltran and kept responsibility for the deferred money, the team acquiring Carlos would be paying 8MM and the Mets would be paying 5MM up front, neither amount is astronomical.  Depending on when payments begin to be made on the deferred money, the Mets could be hedging their bets that they will be in better shape financially at that time.  Overall using this method the Mets may pay more of Beltran's contract then if they sent some portion of an 18.5MM contract up front, but in their current situation they would gain flexibility through the deferment.

Mets could keep Green


Sean Green
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
A year ago no one would have guessed that Sean Green would be on a Mets roster let alone have a shot at the 2011 team. The Mets have to decide by Thursday whether to tender Green for next year.

Green has several things working in his favor; a new regime, he's cost effective as well as being controlable and the Mets really need relievers.

In his first season with the Mets (2009) Green appeared in 79 games with an ERA of 4.52. Last seaon he spent most of it injured (ribs), an injury he attributes to attempting a submarine delivery at the request of the team. Green is healthy and back to a three quarter arm delivery.

Adam Rubin speculates that the Mets may keep him around and see what he looks like in spring training.

But given that fact that he made $975,000 last season, and with the lack of bullpen arms under control, perhaps the new front office will make a different evaluation. It’s unlikely Green would warrant a raise. So if evaluators do not like what they see in spring training, they could just cut him a check for 30 days’ pay in March -- roughly $160,000 -- and bid farewell then. source ESPN NY

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Feliciano- market test or home town discount


Pedro Feliciano 1
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
Ken Davidoff of Newsday is reporting that Pedro Feliciano's agent believes Pedro is considering accepting arbitration.

The skeptic in me says that Pedro is getting a feel for the market before the Tuesday deadline, if he's not comfortable with what's being offered then he has the security of arbitration with a team he is comfortable with. But just as Takahashi turned down a one year deal reportedly worth 2.5MM because he believed he could get a multi-year deal so should Feliciano.

Sure he's 35 y/o but he's a workhorse who effectively pitches amongst the most innings of any reliever in the game. Maybe teams are concerned that his workload will diminish his effectiveness, I wrote in this post, that his peripheral numbers are beginning to decline. Not enough to be concerned on a one year deal but over multiple years I could see diminished returns.

So maybe if the best deal he can get is a two year deal then it might not be worth it to change teams, if the profit and/or security is only marginal then maybe it doesn't out weigh the value of familiarity.

We just saw Jon Garland give a great discount to a team he wanted to be with maybe Pedro feels the same way. The Dodgers gave up on him as a 23y/o because he was unsuccessful in seven AAA appearances and Cincy after signing him used him as a throw in for Shawn Estes ( Brady Clark being the main piece the Mets got). Two things changed the direction of "Perpetual Pedro's" career and both are linked to the Mets.

In 2004 Rick Peterson droped his arm angle (source Daily News) hiding the ball longer and giving it more sweeping movement. The Mets allowed him to pitch the 2005 season ( they still had control so they could have denied) in Japan, he credits the unusual bullpen sessions Japanesse style baseball (source NY Time) uses for his rubber arm.

It also seems that Warthen and Pedro are comfortable with each other, the old school Warthen being able to take playful pokes at the younger Feliciano...

On the mound, he can feel when his head shifts out of place or his throwing motion skews. He knows who he is. His pitching coach, Dan Warthen, reinforces this when Feliciano segues into trouble by “him getting too cute.”

Warthen’s solution is simple. Just “call him stupid,” Warthen deadpanned on Sunday morning before the Mets completed their sweep of the Orioles. A wide grin creased his face inside the visitor’s clubhouse at Camden Yards in Baltimore. “It’s in a facetious or a cynical way. But also he understands what I’m talking about: ‘Come on, now. Be the pitcher you’re supposed to be.’ ” source NJ.com

Friday, November 26, 2010

I don't see Ellsbury as a fit for the Mets...

In an article for USA Today Paul White takes a look at Jacob Ellsbury situation in Boston, one of the teams White speculates about is the Mets.  Apparently there is a rift between Boston and Ellsbury, one that appears on the mend but still could result in him being moved.

The Mets need a jump start and an Ellsbury-like dimension in their power-squashing ballpark. source USA Today

I just don't see how Ellsbury would be a fit for the Mets, Boston wants to get younger and restock their system, while Ellsbury is a lead-off hitter and a center fielder.

Last I checked the Mets have one too many center fielders and Carlos Beltran wouldn't fit into the concept of getting younger.  Even in a small park Cameron, Drew and Beltran wouldn't be an appealing defensive proposition. 

If Beltran wasn't part of the deal, what would be the point of switching Pagan for Ellsbury, it seems the difference between the two is nominal.  Boston might want to do it because of the issue with Ellsbury but what would be the point for the Mets they're not in need of a lead-off hitter with Reyes here. 

Now that's just sorting out the outfield and the batting order, more importantly the Mets don't have the prospects to re-stock anyone elses farm. 

The only way this would make any sense is in a three way deal in which Reyes and/or Beltran/Pagan were on the move and the prospects were coming from another team...

Wally will be back...

John Harper of the Daily News has a great article on Wally Backman, in which Backman discusses his disappointment with not being hired as the Mets manager. 

Many feel that my stance against hiring Backman as the manager of the Mets makes me anti-Wally which simply isn't the truth.  I simply felt that experience on the major league level whether as a manager/coach was important and felt the others had better resumes.  But I still feel that Wally is an asset and hoped he would stay in the system. 

If he continues to prove himself by progressing through the levels of the minor leagues and the position opened up, I'd welcome him as the manager.  In Harper's article Backman has agreed to stay in the minor league system but has yet to be assigned...
As a result, he said he has signed a contract to manage in the minors for the Mets next season, but has yet to be told where he'll be assigned. source Daily news


FMart/Murphy out but going in different directions...

Adm Rubin is keeping us up to date on all the winter league action, two of the Mets prospects that I'm sure they hoped were going to have an impact of this years big league roster are out of action in the Dominican leagues. 

That's where the similarity ends, as these two players seem to be going in opposite directions...

After one game the often injured Fernando Martinez is out with significant knee pain and his winter ball season might be over.  There's no denying FMart's talent and even with his injury issues he's the #1 prospect in the Mets organization.  Still it's concerning how often he's injured and these injuries appear to occur during normal baseball activities, it's not like there are reports of his reckless abandon.  I keep hoping that he was pushed so hard at such a young age that these are nothing more then growing pains as his bodies matures and adjusts to being an athlete but at 22 y/o that excuse is becoming hard to wash.  It's not like he has any value at this point anyway so I guess we'll see what he turns out to be in the minor leagues, Alex Ochoa is the name that's starting to come to mind in regards to him for me....

Dan Murphy is knocking the cover off the ball ( BA .320) and is at least serviceable at 2B, Murphy looks to be in serious contention for the 2B job this up coming season.  The only question will be whether his offense which unlike Uggla lacks power will justify the runs allowed by his defense.  Murphy's 2010 season ended in his second game at 2B in AAA when a dirty slide took out his knee, now I do think it was an out of the base line dirty slide but still an experienced 2B could have avoided injury which is the concern with a novice at the position.  Murphy has played well and a lot in the Dominican and it's to be expected that his repaired knee will become fatigued, the team is giving him five days rest.  It doesn't appear to be a set back and he still should be fine for spring training. 

"Murphy has tired legs," Sanchez told ESPN's Enrique Rojas. "Aguilas and Metstrainers agree he needs five consecutive days resting. Murphy will be back Tuesday. He doesn't have injuries -- only fatigue -- because he played all of Aguilas' games. He's the most consistent Aguilas player this season in all ways." source ESPN NY






Mets second tier pitchers market

According to Andy Martino the Mets will be in the market for a starting pitcher from the second tier of players.  With Johan out until after the season starts and Pelfrey still inconsistent the Mets could really use a top end starter but their budget won't allow that to happen. 

It sounds like the new administration will play it safe with a mediocre pitcher instead of taking a risk on a high reward/high risk guy like Branden Webb. 
There are still lower-tier names such as Kevin Millwood, Brian Bannister, Jeremy Bonderman and Chris Young (who played under Alderson and Paul DePodesta in San Diego). Those are the sort of folks we are more likely to see in St. Lucie. source Daily News

Thursday, November 25, 2010

No need for Eckstein Mets have gritty 2B- Justin Turner

I believe in the intangibles, two of the most incredible baseball events I ever witnessed were both inexplicable.  Jack Morris 1991 game seven, 10 inning, complete game shut-out at 36 y/o  in which he later said he willed himself to win and Kirk Gibson, who could barely walk in an 0-2 count against Dennis Eckersley hits a game winning home run. 

Now I've taken some heat from some saber fans because I believe in the intangibles but I think that's because I'm misunderstood.  I don't understand many of the sabermetrics but I'm open minded and when someone into them explains something that could be a potential problem I can buy into it. 

But there are simply too many players throughout the history of all sports, who have acknowledged on an individual level mental toughness and on a roster level chemistry, for me to deny it's existence.

However, especially in baseball where they play 162 games a season and usually six days a week, I believe talent out weighs all other factors and if a sabermetic fan can prove through advanced numbers who has the most talent then I'm all for that player. 

So for me where do the intangibles come into play, in two scenarios; 1) When all else is equal between the players being considered I think the players personality along with the clubs overall team chemistry should be taken into account.  2) When a player of greater talent under preforms based on personality and a player of inferior talent consistently over preforms and makes the gap between the two players negligible. 

But I would never infer the idea of obtaining an inferior player because the team needs the intangibles that the player is perceived to provide, once Francoeur showed himself to be a .230ish hitter and Beltran had returned, I would not advocate playing Frenchy over Pagan to keep clubhouse chemistry. 

I start this post by defining my stance on the intangibles because once again I'm hearing a lot of fans talking about gritty players, specifically David Eckstein at 2B.  I hope we can do better in-house then a 36 y/o, .260 hitter who has always had to windup to throw the ball, but Eckstein's face is in the dictionary next to baseball grittiness.

I think if all things talent wise are equal amongst the in-house 2B candidates, then we have a young gritty player instead of signing a 36y/o, aging, injury risk player. 

Here is what I see amongst the 2B candidates;

Forget Luis Castillo's negative intangibles he is simply injury prone at this stage in his career which is limiting his range and offensive production, Castillo would not be on this team 6MM is an eatable contract. 

I would ask my saber friends does Dan Murphy's projected offensive output outweigh his defensive runs allowed or would Ruben Tejada's defense outweigh his lack of offensive production. 

But the one player who hasn't been mentioned who could provide the grittiness that many fans want from Eckstein but would also provide a negligible difference from Tejada's defense and Murphy's offense is Justin Turner. 

While he hasn't had much publicity the team knows him very well, Obie was his manager in AAA and now in winter ball, Wayne Krivsky has had him in Cincy, Baltimore and now NY.

Now you won't find Turner on a top prospect list unless it goes past 20, but since he was drafted he's received honorable mentions with three different clubs.

Despite being an All-American and leader of College baseball powerhouse Cal Fullerton (source ESPN U) in their successful College World Series Championship, he wasn't drafted until the 7th round by the Reds in 2006.  In a funny piece from last year Adam Rubin reports on Chris Carter and Justin Turner playing each other in the CWS (source ESPN NY).  By 2008 one Reds blog ranked him their #23 prospect with this to say...


Justin Turner is a grinder who gets every last drop out of his athletic ability. Unfortunately, his ability and upside are limited, but he's got the drive and work ethic to be successful. source Redlegs baseball

Most know at least this much about Justin, that he was part of a trade for Ramon Hernandez which is how he ended up going from Cincy to Baltimore.  Two years later his Reds GM, Krivsky would recommend the Mets claim him off waivers after Baltimore tried to slip him through, Krivsky had also been an advisor in Baltimore the same year Turner was there (2009). 

At the time of his trade to Baltimore minor league guru Jonathan Mayo called Turner a "Baseball Rat" in the below linked article Mayo describes Turner's defensive/offensive abilities and then concludes with the following; 


Known as "Red" because of his hair color, Turner is the type of player whose individual tools don't grade out well. But most feel he'll be a big leaguer because his intangibles are off the charts and he's the type of player who does whatever it takes to win and maximize his talent. source MLB.com
Mayo describes him defenisvely as a smart player that positions well to make up for range and his arm is best suited for 2B, as a hitter he's a patient contact hitter.  He's only had 35 AB in the majors ( most in a season was 12 AB) over three seasons with the Mets and Orioles in which he hit .119.

However, his minor league offensive numbers are consistent and impressive, overall in five minor league seasons he has a BA of .309 with an OBP .373.  In two AAA seasons he hit .309, one season in AA .289, two seasons in A+ .301, A ball one season .311 and rookie ball .338.

By the way if you want more on Turner there is a blog dedicated to him. Eckstein never played a major league game until he was 26y/o, Turner turns 26 during this season.

Wilpon's understand their role ?

Are the Wilpon's getting it, it certainly appears that way to me.  In Sept. Joel Sherman wrote a scathing of the Wilpon's and it'd be had to find a Mets fan that disagreed. 

An AL executive: “This is not an attractive job unless you want the money. The only person with a worse reputation then Jeff Wilpon in the game is [Marlins president] David Samson. source NY Post


 I wrote at the time of the Alderson hiring that the Wilpon's needed to be given credit for getting out of their own way and hiring a legitimate baseball man and then allowing him to hire his assistants (here).

It appears the Wilpon's are truly committed to this process as once again they remained removed from the managerial process.  I know Jeff sat in on parts of the final interviews but you'd be hard pressed to find a COO/CEO who didn't, but I don't buy into these conspiracy theories ( some say the Wilpon's always wanted Collins).  Whether he would have been my pick or not, he wasn't my first choice but I didn't have a problem with him and his press conference certainly pumped me up, I believe he was Alderson pick. 

I always felt that ownership changed their approach sometime in 2007, prior to that I believe this was Omar's team to build.  I think their biggest mistake was that they began to question Omar's ability to build this team but instead of removing him they tried to guide him, this lead to a reputation as an indecisive team with a meddlesome ownership.  Fred Wilpon eluded to as much in a NY Post article in regard to the Collins hiring. 
Wilpon said it was easy for him to take on a lesser role because of the front office Alderson has assembled, and though it’s been less than a month since the owner handed the keys over to his new GM, so far he likes what he sees from the regime.


 "Last week at the owners’ meetings in Florida, everybody I talked to said we had among the best, if not the best, top-level management in all of baseball,” Wilpon said of Alderson and his two top deputies, Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi. “It’s a process. There’s more thoughtfulness now, no knee-jerk [reactions]. I’m not suggesting every decision is going to be right, but it’s going to be a considered choice.” source NY Post

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Ollie a LOOGY

Along the lines of your paying him 12MM why not;  After all the Mets are down to Pat Misch and Mike O'Connor as left handed pitchers. As a reliever in the Mexican league of winter ball ( equivalent somewhere between AA-AAA) Perez has an ERA of 9.00.  In five innings he's allowed five runs on seven hits, and three walks while striking out six. 

Collins on-field game plan...

During yesterday's interviews Terry Collins gave a little insight into what he'll be looking to do come spring training with a few of the questionable spots in the field...

Outfield: Angel Pagon is seen as a starter but whether that will be CF or RF will be determined in Spring training.  That determination will be dictated by another outfielder's performance in Port St. Lucie, Collins says Carlos Beltran's position will be decided upon based on how he does this spring which will subsequently effect Pagan.

Catching: Josh Thole has shown enough to be a starting catcher, while Collins didn't say it the Mets will look for a healthy back-up catcher then Henry Blanco. 

Second Base: It sounds like an open competition between Luis Castillo and Dan Murphy.  Collins emphasized slowing down prospects and giving them a chance to develop which is where I think Tejada stands.  Luis Hernandez is probably a AAAA player. 

Batting Order: Jose Reyes under Collins is a lead off hitter, no more of this batting third experiment which was an idea way back when Phillips was the GM not a Jerry hatched thing. 

I think the pitching staff is in the most trouble, not that Terry makes roster decisions but it will impact him on the field.  The rotation needs at least one quality starter and the pen is extremely thin with no indications as to what direction they're going to take...

Even unremarkable left-hander Raul Valdes, let go by the Mets, has signed a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, leaving Pat Misch as perhaps the best major league-ready option for left-handed relief currently under the Mets' control.



From the right side in the bullpen, beyond K-Rod and Parnell, there are few guarantees. In fact, the organization could even choose to cut loose arbitration-eligible Sean Green by the Dec. 2 deadline to offer him a contract -- although Green made only $975,000 last season and could be worth retaining. Ryota Igarashi also has a season remaining on his two-year deal. source ESPN NY

Collins relationship with the Rich family

Harvey Araton of the NY Times has a very interesting read on Terry Collins and his relationship with Mr. and Mrs. Rich's. 

Terry Collins was the manager of the Buffalo Bison's from 1989-1991 when they were the AAA affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  His career in Buffalo peaked in 1991 when he took the Bison's to the final, he lost in the fifth and final game of the series. 

All three seasons the Binson's won 80 games and Collins was a tremendously popular figure, so much so that he was named to Buffalo's baseball Hall of Fame.

The Rich family ( owners of Rich frozen foods) own the Buffalo team and while Collins was there built a stadium which could have easily been expanded to fit a major league audience.  After hosting the first AAA All-Star game with Collins as the manager and a brand new stadium, capable of quickly meeting major league standards Buffalo felt they were in line for an expansion team in 1993.  Had they been awarded the team Mr. Rich's says Collins would have been his manager.

The Rich's flew down from Buffalo to attend Collins press conference to show their support, Araton got a few minutes with with the Rich's.  Great read; they discuss the plane ride home after the playoff loss, the amount of time Collins put into the team, took a shot at Mo Vaughn and how big he had become within the community. 

Araton goes on to speculate that Rich's relationship may have had an influence on him returning to Buffalo and even his new job...

And it is, in all likelihood, no coincidence that he landed the big downstate job two years after the Buffalo Bisons became the Mets’ International League affiliate and one year after Collins joined the organization.



Robert Rich said he was not consulted this month by Sandy Alderson, the new general manager, but was coy on whether he had anything to do with connecting Collins with the Mets last year.


“We always talk,” he said of his partners, Fred and Jeff Wilpon. The moral of the story is that it never hurts to have old friends in high, upstate places, especially when they consider you the perfect managerial 10. source NY Times



Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Collins talked to Bowa but is there room..

Well Terry Collins is now admitting he has spoken to Larry Bowa, after watching what Bowa was able to do with Cano, I'd love to have him on the staff. 

But as Collins hinted there might not be a spot for him;  how many fiery guys can you put in one clubhouse before you stress your roster out.  Chip Hale ( fiery personality) will be at 3B and Collins wants a cool/calm type of guy on the bench.  Collins also indicated that one spot will be filled by someone getting promoted from the farm and Alderson said the hitting coach will be carefully picked based on the roster. 

So Bowa would only fit as the 1B coach and there are already indications that Collins could select Mookie Wilson. 
"I've got a lot of names," Collins said. "Sandy and I already have talked this morning briefly. No. 1, certainly I'm going to bring in somebody with a different personality than me as the bench coach. We don't need two of us on that bench like this. So we're going to change that."


On Bowa, Collins said: "I talked to Larry. He's a great friend. And I'm going to call Larryabout some things. But I wanted Chip to be back. I know he did a great job. I'm going to bring somebody up from the minor leagues. I want to bring in some other people. I want to have a diverse staff. I think it's important to have that. ... We can't stop teaching. So I've got to have some guys who can work. This is a work-in-progress. I want coaches who have the ability to work and can get this done." source ESPN NY

Feliciano offered Arby...


Pedro Feliciano
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
The Mets put themselves in a very position by offering Pedro Feliciano arbitration.

With the work load he's had over the past five seasons I would be concerned over giving him more then a one year deal, his peripherals are only slightly off but still, common sense dictates caution.

So now Pedro can come back on a one year, reasonable deal or he can test the market. I do believe someone will give him a multi-year deal and he'll move on, but by at least giving him Arby we will get a sandwich pick...

The Mets plan to offer left-handed reliever Pedro Feliciano arbitration prior to Tuesday's deadline, agreeing to the significant risk that comes with a potential reward. source MLB.com




All Collins love fest articles

As expect on the day he's getting his press conference there are numerous articles on Terry Collins.  Now you expect the players who are about to work under him to say good things but I've been very impressed by some of the quotes from some prestigious people who have nothing to gain by praising Collins.  One thing can be said about him, whether he works here or not, the baseball lifer is well respected throughout the game...

Fred Claire former Dodgers GM who is now a columnist for MLB.com talks about discovering Collins and bringing him into the system as a coach/manager.

Mike Lupica of the Daily News has a great article in which his unnamed source "former NL GM" when Collins was Astros manager described him back then as a little Billy Martin/Larry Bowa.  The source thought Collins had learned from his mistakes and mellowed enough to be success.

My favorite read of the group was Andy Martino/ Daily News who had a whole host of comments, from Rays manager Joe Madden who was Collins bench coach with the Angels, Bill Bavasi former Angels GM, several key players from that Angels team and then Mets players who worked with him last season.

The NY Times has two great articles about Collins time with the Angels, David Waldstein's article looks at the long wait Collin's has had since his last game as an MLB manger and Tyler Kepner was a rookie beat writer with the Angels in '99', he shares some of his insight along with quotes from others around the Angels at the time.

Dan Martin of the NY Post also has some great comments from Joe Madden on Collins and the situation in Anaheim. 

TC Palm down in Florida got an email comment from Hojo along with possible staff candidate Jon Debus.

As I said last night Mike Puma of the NY Post has comments from a former NL exect. in regards to the two year contract basically saying that's just what the market is now.

NY Post Mike Vaccaro sees Collins as an upgrade in a baseball prospective regardless of his flaws while Steve Popper of the Record takes a look at what could go right or wrong.

Now most of the papers address the DUI in an article but nobody acted as if it was just discovered like Ben Maller did, Maller finds some unique stuff that I've used often but this is just an awful headline grabber that insults your intelligence...

Monday, November 22, 2010

Late start is impacting roster decisions- Carr/Valdes...

When was the 2010 season over in your eyes; in mine it was when ownership didn't allow Omar to make a deadline trade.  Why do I jump to the assumption that ownership prohibited Omar, because anyone who knew they would lose their dream job if they didn't save the season, would have done anything to give themselves a fighting chance.  With the team as close as it was by not allowing a single trade to transpire, they essentially fired Omar Minaya. 

My contention since midseason is why allow a lame duck administration play out the string when you could have gotten a head start on changing the culture and identifing the new regime.  Much in the manner Chicago with their manager and Arizona with the entire organization.  I have been very impressed by the Mets thorough GM selection process and then the subsequent managers search, I am happy with all who have come on board. 

However, they still need to select a coaching staff which will delay examining the roster and farm for at least another week, in other words the Mets will not be serious about their roster until the winter meetings.  For those of you who are saying who cares this season is a loss anyway let them take their time, I don't believe we're that far off.  I believe they need everything to break right and the few moves they can make need to break perfect, being this far behind the eight ball really inhibits those chances. 

Had the Mets started the GM search in July and announced him in Sept. much like the D-Backs did with Towers, the manager would have been in place with his staff mid-Oct.  By now the entire off-season game plan would already be in place.  Furthermore, had the Wilpon's fired the manager mid-season and hired an interim which probably would have been Melvin or Collins ( the top two candidates) who could have had a head start on changing the clubhouse atmosphere.

I say this because we have now lost our third left hander as Raul Valdes signed a minor league deal with the Cards ( source Joe DeMayo) and Keith Law says we neglected to protect a solid prospect in Nick Carr.  I'm not down on the new regime what-so-ever I see these issues as a lack of time to prepare which is a result of waiting until the first week of Oct. to fire Omar/Jerry and then start the whole process. 

Pelfrey petition for Blanco...

Going to a new administration sticking up for a 39 y/o player with a bad back who hit .215 takes a lot of guts, but according to Jon Heyman that's exactly what Mike Pelfrey was going to do for Henry Blanco.  It's no surprise that Pelfrey would want Blanco, after all they formed a very effective partnership early in the season ( source Star Ledger).  I thought part of Pelfrey's struggles occured when Jerry refused to allow him to have a personal catcher and when Pelfrey/Blanco teamed back up in the later half of the season he was successful again. 

Still for a young pitcher to stick his neck out for Blanco shows a lot of maturity, courage and loyalty, all good characteristics in a young top of the rotation guy. It sounds like the Mets would be leery of bringing Blanco back regardless of Pelf's wishes due to Henry's bad back...

Would Jon Debus be Hitting or Bullpen coach...

This morning Jon Heyman made several tweets about the Mets coaching staff, one of the names mentioned was Jon Debus.  Debus goes back many years with Collins as they were both long time minor league managers in the Dodgers org. Heyman tweeted that while the organization like Randy Niemann, he probably wouldn't be back as bullpen coach because Collins likes that role filled by a catcher.  On of the roles Debus filled on the major league level was bullpen coach and catching coordinator, so it made sense that he may fill Niemann's old position. 



But taking a closer look Debus a former outfielder himself last served as Collins hitting instructor in Japan with the Orix Buffaloes. We haven't heard a word about who will be the next hitting coach so maybe that's what Collins has in mind for Debus. By the way it sounds like Debus is another fiery guy....

Debus joined incoming Orix Buffaloes manager Terry Collins' coaching staff for the 2007 season as the hitting coach. He was fined $50,000 in July after he got involved in a fight between Tomoya Satozaki and Tuffy Rhodes. Debus was ejected from that game. Debus and Collins both stepped down in late May 2008. source Baseball Reference Bullpen


Jauss could be asked to take Collins old job...

One of the draw backs to hiring Terry Collins as the Mets manager was that he had been so effective as the minor league field coordinator.  But the Mets have an in-house option to fill the spot, Sandy Alderson interviewed Dave Jauss for the managerial position so Alderson should know exactly what he's capable of doing.   Jauss served as the Red Sox and Orioles field coordinator and would be an excellent candidate to fill the role, the only question is whether Jauss will accept the job.  The Mets would like to keep Jauss in the organization, he had indicated in recent years that he would like an on the field job instead of an administrative role. While Jauss would be an excellent candidate for field coordinator, he might want a position with one of the minor league teams...
Bench coach Dave Jauss might be asked to fill the minor league field coordinator position that Collins vacated source Daily News

Bowa strong candidate for bench coach

Larry Bowa said there was a strong possibility that if Terry Collins received the Mets managerial job he would join him in some capacity.  Collins and Bowa worked together with the Angels and it sounds like the two are close, for more on the relationship go to this NY Post article.  Bowa is currently out of work after serving as Joe Torre's 3B coach for years, Jim Baumbach is reporting that Bowa is a strong candidate to become bench coach.  I think Bowa would be an excellent hire...


This two year contract is a non-issue

I'm sorry this seems to me to be people looking for a story or reading too much into something. Is it just a slow off-season that is creating this scrutiny or are there ulterior motives involved, fans mad over the pick and media annoyed that they no longer have the sources in the know. 

It's the trend within the industry for new managers to receive a two year deals; Farrell, Gibson, Quade, Roenicke all received two year deals.  The only manager to get more was Clint Hurdle who the Pirates had to push to take their position and not wait for the Mets to decide.  In fact the Marlins only gave Rodriguez a 1 year extension.

Yes, Buck Showalter signed through 2013 which was essentially a 3 1/2 year deal since he started mid-season 2010.  But Showalter had leverage the Orioles were asking a name brand guy to take over an awful team that was seen as a long term project, Showalter would have had plenty of chances this off-season and he could have even taken a front office position. 

In one of the most active managerial markets in recent history there is a reason Bobby Valentine didn't end up becoming any ones manager.  Valentine went against two industry trends he wanted control and a longer term large contract. The market simply isn't there right now which is why Valentine will be in the booth until a team gets desperate like the Orioles. 


The Mets had all the leverage, Collins had no other offers and wanted the position; why would you over pay in years for Collins and go against the industry trend.  Isn't one of the biggest flaws of the Omar regime that they gave players contracts that were too long ( Ollie/Castillo).  Now some are reading into Collins receiving a fair market contract as a lack of commitment to the new manager. 


As the title states this seems like a non-issue to me that some are attempting to make an issue of...

**** I missed a manager Eric Wedge received a three year deal from the Mariners, not sure whether Wedge had leverage or the name value to warrant the deal he receive but it was probably cheaper then the runner up Valentine would have cost the Mariners.  Still in all I think the Mets deal was within industry standards and was a smart deal that shouldn't be sending anyone warning signs.

Warthen on Collins..

It's being widely reported that Dan Warthen will return as the Mets pitching coach, Warthen spoke to Andy McCullough of The Star-Ledger about his relationship with Collins and the new managers' personality...

Warthen’s relationship with Collins spans “15 to 20 years,” Warthen estimated, “across the field, having conversations, different organizations.” They worked together in the Dodgers organization when Warthen spent two seasons as the team’s bullpen coach and Collins ran the farm system. This will be their first time on the same big-league staff.



“Everybody has their own style,” Warthen said. “I think he’s probably a mix between a Valentine, a Piniella and adding a little bit of his own flair. So you get a lot of very positive attributes.” source Star Ledger

Warthen stays and other staff buzz..

Jon Heyman in several tweets is discussing the Mets coaching staff behind Terry Collins.  According to Heyman, Hale will remain at 3B, there will be a new bullpen coach who's a former catcher, Dan Warthen will remain and Jon Debus is in the running for a position. 

Buffalo likes Terry but whats that say about Obie...

Whether he meant to or not, Mike Harrington the beat writer for the Buffalo Bisons in praising Terry Collins slighted Collins potential bench coach Ken Oberkfell.  Obie has been the manager of the Mets AAA team both years it's been in Buffalo, Harrington praised Collins for the rebound the team made in 2010 but what does that say for the manager who was there the year before when he described the team as an embarrassment. 

We know Collins is a legend in Buffalo, having managed them during a very successful time which resulted in him being placed in the Buffalo baseball HOF.  When Buffalo thought it was an expansion city Collins would have been the first manger.

Harrington covers the Bison's everyday, I rem. him making comments that he wished Obie would be more aggressive.  In giving Collins the credit and calling the team the year before an embarrassment, my first thought was; should Obie really be considered for bench coach...

The Mets' development philosophy completely turned in one year under Collins, who helped transform the Bisons from embarrassments in 2009 to contenders in 2010 and cemented the Mets' stay in Buffalo. Now we see what he can do with the big-league club under new GM Sandy Alderson. source Buffalo news






Bobby V. and Collins have something in common Mo

For those who love Bobby Valentine and hate the Terry Collins hiring because he's not Wally Backman this is not my comparison, it's David Waldstein of the NY Times.  In his article about the Collins hiring Waldstein goes into the comparison of the two managers, based on their reputations and ability to teach young players.

Something I found interesting because it's one of the biggest knocks against Collins, is the strikingly similar relationship the two men had with Mo Vaughn.  The Mets were Vaughn's third organization and the third team he had public issues with; in Boston he fought with the GM, Anaheim he targeted Collins and in NY it was Valentine. 

Reading what happened in Los Angels the team thought it was a playoff contender but a rash of injuries cut the season out from under them, Vaughn took the opportunity to lead a small vocal group against Collins that the owner placated by having the GM listening to their concerns.  Eventually the organization sided with Collins and signed him to a mid-season extension, then in Cleveland a fight broke out on the field and Vaughn refused to leave the dugout.  Players supporting Collins came to him requesting Vaughn be benched which he initially did but several days later he resigned from the team. 

Vaughn denied the players initiated the meeting with Bavasi--"We never went to the GM," he said; it is believed Angel President Tony Tavares heard the player complaints and dispatched Bavasi to the clubhouse. Vaughn also said he met with his teammates earlier in the week and reminded them to play hard whether they admired or disdained Collins. source Los Angels Times


Bobby Valentine did not respond by telephone to Mo Vaughn's diatribe against him, the latest example of Mets in all shapes and sizes deciding that the gone but not forgotten Valentine was the reason for everything that fizzled in Flushing. source NY Times


Other names for coaching positions- Mookie/Obie

Last night just as the Collins hiring was breaking I took a look at what the coaching staff could look like; Collins mgr., Macha bench coach, Bowa 1B, Hale 3B, Wallace PC and PTNL hitting coach. 

There are a couple other names to add to the mix, apparently Mookie Wilson made quite an impression on Collins this past year and Collins may have requested him on his staff.  Most of the coaches being discussed were former infielders so Wilson would serve as the outfield instructor in addition to his 1B responsibilities.  Wilson has been part of two of the most successful times in Mets history as a player in '86' and as 1B coach '99-00'. 

Adam Rubin is reporting the Ken Oberkfell is also in consideration for the bench coaches job. 

According to a source, the team will "definitely consider" Mookie Wilson for a coaching position under Terry Collins, likely at first base. source Daily News

The source also suggested Triple-A Buffalo manager Ken Oberkfell could become the Mets' bench coach, although that was far less certain. source ESPN NY






Sunday, November 21, 2010

Early look at the coaching staff- Bowa, Macha, Teuful, Wallace, Hale

Poor guy doesn't even know how much he will get paid and I'm already looking at his staff, but as I see it the front office and coaching staff is our off-season, I don't expect much in players this off-season. 

As posted here I expect a strong push for Ken Macha to become bench coach.  Macha would be the perfect calm figure on the bench to compliment Collins fiery attitude.  Macha also has ties to Collins and the administration from the Oakland days. 

We've heard how happy the team is with Chip Hale as a third base coach and I expect him to stay right there. 

Larry Bowa said that if Collins got the job he expected him to come calling, I think first base coach comes down to Tim Tueful and Larry Bowa.  Now Bowa would be a great hire but he's not a slam dunk, could Bowa, Collins and Hale on one staff be too intense and the Mets may want an 86er on the staff along with promoting Backman to Tim's old job AA mgr.

Finally Mike Francesca on his football show touched on the Mets and said he had heard if Collins got the job Dave Wallace would be his pitching coach.  Wallace and Collins have a connection going back to the 80's in the Dodgers organization.  If his name sounds familiar he was Bob Apodaca's replacement when ownership gutted Bobby V.'s staff in 1999.  He's a highly regarded pitching coach who has worked in pitching rich organizations; Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Braves.   He has served at every level, to include General Mgr. of the Dodgers in 2001.  In 2009 he became the Braves minor league pitching coordinator. 

That would leave hitting instructor and no one has even been vaguely mentioned in regard to this position...

Collins to be named...

While nothing official has been said multiple sources are reporting that Terry Collins has been selected as the new manager of the Mets and all that is left is contract negotiations.  Additionally those same outlets have sources indicating that the other three candidates have been told they will not be getting the position. 

Collins is a safer pick, he appeases most of the fan base who wanted a fiery type of manager and isn't the high risk that Hale/Backman would be with their lack of experience.

That doesn't mean Collins is without risk, he hasn't managed in the majors since 1999 and twice was run out of town for being too tough on veteran players. 

This may be an indication as to the direction the team will be taking, Collins clashes with veterans while being praised for his developmental skills with younger players.  The new administration has shied away from saying their rebuilding but picking Collins might indicate what direction their going in.

I don't want to go over Collins bio again I think everybody has covered that very well, but Adam Rubin has an excellent article on 10 things to know about him...

Backman's lack of experience eliminated him

While nothing is official multiple reports are indicating that Terry Collins will become the next manager of the Mets.  According to Bob Klapisch, Backman was told that his lack of experience is what hurt his chances and inevitably resulted in his elimination...

Unofficially down to Backman/Collins

Jon Heyman just tweeted that Hale has also been eliminated, as Heyman says that brings it down to Collins/Backman unofficially of course...

Breaking News- not Melvin looking like Collins...

Ken Rosenthal just tweeted the Mets next manager will not be Bob Melvin, Rosenthal believes they are leaning towards Terry Collins but nothing is confirmed.  In a seperate tweet Ed Price confirms Melvin is out..

Is Johnson a fair comparison to Backman - Davey sees Terry as a fit...

Many Mets fans who support Wally Backman for manager use Davey Johnson as their example of a successful manager with minimal experience.  My counter to that is that in successive years Johnson managed AA, AAA and then became field coordinator for the Mets minor league system. 

Backman had two very good seasons in AA, the problem was they were with the White Sox and back in 2002-2003.  He's seven years removed from his highest level of managing and his only exposure to our minor league system is a short season in low A.  I know there are those who say managing is managing regardless the level but I disagree with that philosophy, there are tons of highly touted and successful managerial prospects who the higher they go they flop.  Just as I wouldn't promote a player directly from low A nor would I promote a manager. 

It's true Johnson had minimal managerial experience but he had some advanced experience and proved that he could manage at a higher level of competition, he also had extensive exposure to Mets players as they advanced and developed.  Forget concerns over behavioral issues; if Backman had more then a short season with the Mets and managed even a season at AAA the crux of my argument against him would be nullified.  A successful season at AAA and I would be completely on board with Backman...

Johnson credits his preparedness for the Mets managerial position on being the Mets field coordinator the year before, couple that with advancing with the players from AA to AAA and his major league promotion made sense.

It's Johnson's emphasis on his time as field coordinator that makes him feel Terry Collins will get the position despite rooting for his former player Wally Backman.

"If I was the GM, I would want somebody that best knew the whole system," Johnson said. "I'm sure Sandy agrees with this: People who know where talent is on the minor league level and how long it's going to take to get to the major leagues and how it will affect the major league roster, those are very important people. I would think [Collins] would be the frontrunner." source NY Post

Mets minor leaguers complaint about Collins intensity ?...

The big concern with Terry Collins is his ability to successfully work with veteran players, whether it was forcing Craig Biggio into a captain-ship he wasn't comfortable with or his public feud with Mo Vaughn, the issue has always been working with veterans.

We've seen this over the years in all sports, there are many coaches/managers who were successful in the minors/college, but couldn't adjust their style to the pros and working with grown men earning multi-million dollars on long term contracts. 

But by all accounts, Collins is the perfect fit as a field coordinator, this is the second team he's received raved reviews in that position. His energetic personality allows him to supervise seven different levels of an organization's farm while his intensity gets the attention of young players.  Not only has he been praised as a field coordinator but he was a very successful minor league manager even at the highest level AAA. 

The Mets have a young team and with this being his third team, if Collins was hired you would hope that between it being a younger team and him making adjustments, he wouldn't have another coup type of situation.

However; Andy Martino of the Daily News reported today in an article that there were some grumblings from minor leaguers about his personality. If this is the case it would be the first negative thing I can find in regards to Collins and younger players...


Some Mets minor leaguers who worked with him last year grumbled about an intense and moody personality, but others who have worked with Collins speak highly of him. source Daily News

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Terrasas out as Director of Amateur scouting

I'm surprised it took this long but Rudy Terrasas is out as director of Amateur scouting which included the draft, Terrasas was ranked as the worst director in the league.  Most of the Mets top prospects came from the 2005 draft before Terrasas took over. Since then Ike Davis is their best selection and most feel Omar had most of the input on the first rounders.  Terrasas was in charge of several disappointing drafts that were categorized as signably conservative ( low risk of not signing and within slot) with low ceilings because they were looking for rapid advancement into the majors; ie. Eddie Kunz and Joe Smith. 

Why Collins or Melvin seem to make sense...

Still most of the pundits sources are still saying that it's between Melvin and Collins. 



This is how I see it and mind you this is purely speculation on my part with absolutely no sources or inside information.  This group really seems to have put an emphasis on prior managerial experience, many don't like the Torre analogy because he's been too successful to compare but Melvin was being compared to Torre ( over success despite demeanor) all the way back in 2007 when he was given an extension.  As I've mentioned before this management group has been successful with re-treads and no name managers who failed prior to them or after they left.  I think in a small market with a young team you would have seen this group hire a no name like Hale/Backman but in a large market with image issues it becomes all about reducing variables. 

This is why I believe, there is such an emphasis on prior managerial experience this time around, between  the NY factor; knowing the team might not change much and with how negative Citi field has been, they want somebody they know what their response will be and they seem to want a known commodity working to change the culture.

I believe Bob Melvin would be their choice if the fan base wasn't so vocal in their opposition to him.  He's known to be a good communicator, work well within a system and the system he worked well within used a very statistical/analytical approach.  Additionally I believe they see Melvin as a consistent figure in what could be a very tenuous situation, he's a known commodity in a very fluid situation.

But with a large group of the fan base being so vocal against Melvin and for Backman, it appears the team has taken it into consideration.  I don't feel that portion of the fan base is pushing them into hiring Backman, I just don't think their willing to make that type of leap but what I think it could do is push them into choosing Collins.  I think he could be seen as the middle ground, fans get an intense fiery guy and the administration gets a known commodity. 

In both Houston and Anaheim Collins was successful his first two years, it was in his third year that he got under the skin of the veterans, in both places veterans were the ones who had issues with him.  I could see the team bringing in Collins to partially appease the fan base and have a manager they are comfortable with, in the short term.  Just as Collin's is getting burned out Hale or Backman could have the seasoning they're looking for and the situation could be more stable. 

I think they see Hale and Backman as needing more seasoning especially for the situation the club is currently in and putting an inexperience manager into this situation, I think creates too many variables. 

The Mets as a business currently have a universal branding issue, not just within the fan base. I think this brain trust understands the importance of reducing as many variables as possible.  There has been enough negative coverage of this team in the past three years and as much of that occurred off the field as it did on the field. 

For fans this is easy, win and they will come, lose and they wont.  For those people who say anyone manages this team other then Backman and I'm not going or even if their losing, if Backman is the manager I will root for them by going, I think is being short sighted.  How long will fans really come in masses if the team is awful with Backman managing and how long will they really stay away if their winning with Collins or Melvin in charge, in either case I say after the first warm games of the season.

The Mets have already started addressing their branding issues by the hiring of this leadership group now as they rebuild the team, I also think they're trying to rebuild the brands image.  What the Mets need to do is avoid the label of "Same Ole Mets" and while many fans are saying that about these potential retread hires the baseball world isn't.  What I see the Mets doing is trying to ensure there won't be any over the top incidents that set back the progress they are trying to make, Melvin and Collins have 6-7 major league seasons where they know how they responded to the pressure. 

Reducing the variables which improves the brand could be essential to restoring the team, after all revenues aren't only from ticket sales.  It's also about sponsorship, advertising, marketing, merchandise, national coverage and I don't think this brain trust wants reporters challenged, domestics in players lounges, shirts being taken off to challenge players and midnight firings ( to name a few incidents from the last admin.). 

The most successful brand in baseball is the Yankees, sure within their fan base they took off when they started winning again.  But universally the brand reached the height of their branding revenues when the Steinbrenner cowboy style was removed and the corporate model was embraced.

Non-tender candidates- Maine and Green


John Maine 5
Originally uploaded by Michael G. Baron
Two of the players who represented Omar's biggest accomplishments became part of his failure and could be gone this off-season.

John Maine was once the hidden jewel, a throw in player who achieved double digit wins as starter. Maine was the other player for set-up man Jorge Julio ( who eventually became El Duque) in exchange for #3 starter Chris Benson. But Maine has become the often injured and constantly in denial starter who can't stay on the mound, who's shoulder is probably toast.

Then there was the off-season that produced the great 1-2 punch bullpen, the signing of K-Rod and trade for J.J. Putz. Of all the players moved between the three teams Franklin Gutierrez is the only starter. Putz lost the entire year and then moved on to Chicago, the only piece the Mets had left was Sean Green. At the time of the trade the Mets had numerous teams hoping they would flip Green, two seasons later he has never been effective or injury free.

Those are the two obvious candidates but there are others if the space is needed; Manny Acosta, Tobi Stoner, Luis Hernandez and Jason Pridie seem like the most obvious candidates.


Because they don't figure to be major players in the free-agent market, the Mets don't necessarily need many open spots on their 40-man roster. In addition, New York figures to gain two more spots from John Maine and Sean Green, both of whom are candidates to be non-tendered next month. source Mets.com

Friday, November 19, 2010

Zach Duke is interesting but not too interesting...

The Pirates have designated 27 y/o left handed starting pitcher Zach Duke for assignment, they now have 48 hours to make a trade or release him.  Apparently the Pirates attempted to trade him and negotiate a deal but when neither panned out they decided he wasn't worth his 5MM plus arbitration figure and cut him loose.

It's highly unlikely that Duke will accept assignment and if he becomes a free agent your then competing with the entire league.  A team could claim him and use the claim, even if it meant giving the Pirates a minimal piece to avoid pulling him back, as an exclusive negotiation window. 

In 2005 Duke came in 5th for rookie of the year and in 2009 he was selected to the All-Star team.  He has been the Pirates #2 starter for five straight season but has an overall record of 45-70 with an ERA 4.54.  I'd put a claim in on him but wouldn't give up much in way of trade nor would I give him the 5+MM he's due to get in arbitration.

Duke could end up being Ollie Jr. and the Pirates have had a history in recent years of very promising pitchers ending up being busts.  Oliver Perez, Chris Benson, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny and Kip Wells to name a few who looked really good only to struggle in the end.

Still we need left handed pitching and Duke could be a low risk, high reward type of guy...

GM Neal Huntington said that the Pirates tried to negotiate a contract with Duke, but were unsuccessful. The team felt that he was not worth what he would have made in arbitration (probably around $5 million). The club explored trade opportunities, but were unsuccesful. source Pro Rumors

Towers returns the favor to Omar...

A year ago around this time Kevin Towers was out of work and the former GM of the Padres.  Omar Minaya reportedly offered Towers a position, probably something to the effect of Asst. to the GM in scouting.  Towers decided to pass because he didn't want to take a position where the GM was on shaky ground ( see this post), instead he scouted for the Yankees last year. 

Towers is now in his first year with the D-Backs and is the first to offer Omar a position. Omar is reportedly still willing to discuss his possibilities within the Mets org. and is said to be willing to meet with Sandy in the near future.  I hope they keep Omar and utilize him in the international scouting dept., which seems to be his strength.

Former Mets GM Omar Minaya has been offered a position as special assistant to Arizona GM Kevin Towers, according to an industry source. The source said that nothing was imminent, and that Minaya was expected to meet with Sandy Alderson this offseason about how he might fit with the new Mets’ front office. source Daily News

Mets add four to the roster

At the deadline to protect players from the rule five draft the Mets have added four players to the roster.  I completed this post which lists all the players at risk, now that the deadline has come anyone on list other then the four selected can be drafted by another team during the winter meetings.  Of course, the team selecting the player has to follow all the rule five stipulations which often results in the player returning to their team...
On the deadline day to place farmhands on the 40-man roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft, the Mets added right-handerJosh Stinson, right-hander Armando Rodriguez, third baseman Zach Lutz and second baseman Jordany Valdespin Friday. Previously, right-hander Manny Alvarez had been added. source ESPN NY






Alderson Track record...

This is exactly why, no matter who Sandy Alderson and his staff picks, I will support them, it's not blind faith as I once had with Omar who re-energized a flat fan base but because of their proven track record.  They may not always pick the most exciting candidate and several times picked re-trends (Howe/LaRussa) or complete no names ( Black- at the time of his hire) but they are effective within their system. If we expand that to include his disciple Billy Beane we can include Ken Macha and Bob Geren. 

LaRussa prior to being hired had been fired mid-season from Chicago with a record of 26-38. Arte Howe failed before and after Oakland in Houston and New York but with the A's went to the playoffs three times in a row and the year before that run finished second. Bud Black wasn't a well known name off the west coast.  Ken Macha took the A's to the playoff's twice and finished second his other two seasons but couldn't last more then two seasons with the Brewers.  Bob Geren has struggled but so has Beane to build a roster for him, the best I can say about him is that the team improved to a second place finish last year.

One thing can be said about the Alderson hires they succeed within his system, they generally aren't the most appealing candidates and some have been retreads that have failed elsewhere but general they work for him...

Mike O'Connor resigns

The Mets are in desperate need of left handed relief pitchers with Takahashi and probably Feliciano leaving.  From Buffalo Adam Pettyjohn, Raul Valdes and Mike O'Connor declared free agency.  That leaves the Mets with Pat Misch ( controllable but out of options) and Michael Antonini.

The Mets have resigned Mike O'Connor to a minor league deal, the 29 y/o lefty spent all of last year in the Buffalo bullpen where he made 52 appearances with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.16. O'Connor spent parts of two seasons in the majors with the Nats; in 2006 he made 20 starts with a record of 3-8 and an ERA of 4.80. then in 2008 he appeared in 5 games ( 1 start ) with an ERA of 13.00. 

There was a small clamouring for O'Connor to get called up at the end of the season but it didn't happen.  His resigning shows that the new administration looks strictly at talent ( even if it's minor league fodder) and isn't bent on removing the past regime, not only was O'Connor signed by Omar but he was originally draft by Omar in the 7th round of the 2002 draft ( Expos).