Friday, June 17, 2011

A full look at bad contracts in regard to Bay

Despite his four hits in two games, this just maybe the wrong place for Jason Bay.  I do believe with his resume teams would be willing to take a chance on him, the problem right now isn't his trade value, it's the albatross of his contract.  You could easily package Bay as a quiet small town guy eaten up by the NY media and engulfed in an expansive park, as the reason he has struggled. It's the 35M he's owed over the next three years which will create the roadblock for the Mets in making a move, of course; if the Mets weren't paying him that much and could afford Reyes they probably would hold onto Bay to see if he rebounds.  I can't see any team taking any of Bay's money; so if it's, move Bay to free up money for Jose, I think were out of luck.  But if the organization feels that this situation has snow balled out of control and they have to move him then I could see them making a Bradley for Silva type of deal. 

Unfortunately the perfect fit would be Boston but they just don't have the contract to match and after A-Gon / Crawford deals I don't think they'll be in the business of incurring expenses on a reclamation project. 

I'm sure if the Mets were willing to include a chunk of his contract there would be a number of teams willing to take a chance on him, but that would defeat the purpose of what they are attempting to do. 

Jason is owed 16M for the next two years with a third year 17M club option that can be bought out at 3M, making his min. total owed 35M.  For his Met career he is approximately 30 points below his lifetime BA, OBP and almost 150 points below his Slg./OPS. Those numbers are drastically better due to a decent, if not short 2010 season. 

My thoughts are kinda neutral on Bay, I like his personality and think he's a hard working guy who is trying.  I wonder if he's hiding an injury or is still effected by the concussion, say his eye sight specifically peripheral vision. But if we can't save money on Bay to sign Reyes, then if the org. wants to wait it out I'm fine and if they want to make a move, it would be as equally ok with me.

So here are the deals that are relatively similar to Bay's and the other team may have a reason to move them. On a sidenote rem. that as part of the CBA a player traded during a multi-year deal has to play that year and then can opt for free agency ( ie; Delgado could have been FA '07').  Surprising in searching through Cots contract there are very few bad deals out there. 

Lets start with the most obvious Chone Figgins, the versatile utility player is owed 17M-26M over the next three years (  12:$9M, 13:$8M, 14:$9M vesting option/ vests at 600PA in 2013) and is hitting approx. 40 points below his career average along with about 50 points below in all other categories.  Mets could be sold on Figgy by saying he's a guy who needs to be on the big stage and will thrive with his former teammate Krod while Seattle liked Bay this off-season possibly to draw in the Canadian audience. 

Remember when it was considered a forgone conclusion that Barry Zito would become a Met, until the Giants bowled him over with a ridiculous contract.  The eccentric lefty has floundered in SF and the Giants have built an incredible homegrown rotation.  Maybe Citi field would be friendly to Zito and he always provides 30 starts a season. Overall he is still owed 46M over three years (19M, 20M, 7M club option buyout). 

If you trade Bay then you need to replace him, unless you swap outfielders and Alex Rios seems to be in the same position in Chicago plus he's had his run-ins with the manager. Kenny Williams is never afraid to make a move so Rios for Bay might be a more obtainable trade then others.  Rios is hitting approx. 30-40 points below his numbers in Toronto across the board.  He's owed almost identical money to Bay, 39M over three years plus a buyout (12.5M, 13M, 13M, 1M buyout club option (15M). 

Chicago also has Adam Dunn who has been a bust in his first year in the American league, remember Ike Davis coming out of college was as serviceable at RF as a 1B and has a pitchers arm.  Dunn might need to be in the National league and playig instead of DHing to keep his bat going, plus the Mets could really use his power potential.  For his career is a .248 BA, .378 OBP and .514 Slg., currently he's hitting .185, OBP .329 and .341 SLG.  He's owed 44M over 3 years (14M, 15M, 15M). 

Is it time for A.J. Burnett to get back to the National League where he had so many good years with the Marlins.  The Mets need pitching and Burnett would thrive in Citi espcially without facing the Sox or a DH. Rekindling the Sox/Yanks rivaly for Bay might be what he needs to get going.  AJ held a 3.73 ERA in the National League while he currently has a 4.52 with the Yanks.  He's owed 33M over the next two years ( 16.5M per year).

The Mets haven't had a solid power hitting 2B since Kent and Fonzie ( Stache was great but only for '06')and  Dan Uggla has been a bust in Atlanta.  The money doesn't match and the Mets-Braves rarely trade but I thought he should be mentioned.  Uggla is owed 52M over the next four years at 13.2M per year. His career numbers are .256 BA, .341 OBP, .474 Slg. and .815 OPS. To say he's struggling is an understatement his BA is .174, .244 OBP, .322 Slg. and .566 OPS.

There are a few players with big contracts where there teams might be willing to move them to free up salary but would be looking for prospects not taking on another big contract. These aren't players struggling who are seen as bad deals, any deal including these players would be to free up money.

Ricky Weeks 43.5M over 4yrs ( 11, 11, 12, 11.5)

Justin Upton  46M over 4 yrs (6.9, 9.9, 14.4, 14.7)

Michael Young 32M over two years (16M per)

Victor Martinez 38M over three years (13, 13, 12)

The Cubs might be willing to move Alfonzo Soriano since he's getting 57M over three years (19M), but his big issues seemed to be with Lou Pinella. Despite the little hop he does on easy fly balls and poor tracking of fly balls, his numbers have been decent enough to where I don't see the Cubs looking to run him out of town and I can't see the Mets taking on anything over what they owe Bay.

I'm not including the bad contract of all contracts, somehow the Jays were able to talk the Angels into taking Vernon Wells deal but I can't see Moneyball guys even considering a 73.9M ( 3yrs 24.643) which is what is left on his contract.

Honorable mentions Carlos Lee with one year left at 20M, Brian Roberts two years left at 10M per, Carlos Zambrano one year at 19M and Rafial Soriano 25M over two years.