Friday, September 23, 2011

An early look at the roster moving into the off-season

The Mets currently have 45 players on the 40 man roster, including five players on the 60 day DL.  Here's a look at the roster heading into the off-season, the Mets also have some decisions to make on who to protect from the rule V draft; here is a list of eligible players via Macks Mets.

Reese Havens, Brad Holt, Juan Lagares, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Robert Carson, Collin McHugh, Rhiner Cruz, Stefan Welch, Rafael Fernandez, Pedro Zapata, John Lujan, Raul Reyes, Brahiam Maldonado, Kai Gronauer, Allan Dykstra, Sean Ratliff, Eric Beaulac, Eric Campbell, Mark Cohoon, Brandon Moore, Alonzo Harris, Dylan Owen, Juan Centeno, Roy Merritt, Richard Lucas, Brant Rustich, Eric Niesen, Jeff Kaplan, James Fuller, Francisco Pena, Scott Moviel, Nick Carr, Adrian Rosario source Macks Mets

There are (6) veteran players under contract for 2012 totaling 68M : 
Santana (24M), Bay (18M), Wright (15.2M), Dickey (4.7M), Carrasco (1.2M), Byrdak (estimated 1-2M)

The Mets have (6) free agent players:
Jose Reyes, Chris Capuano, Scott Hairston, Chris Young, Willie Harris, Miguel Batista

There are (5) arbitration eligible players: 
Mike Pelfrey (Arb. 2), Ronny Paulino (Arb. 3), Bobby Parnell ( Arb. 1).  Two players were super twos and have a fourth year of Arby Pagan and Buchholz

All other players on the roster are under control because they're in there first three years of their major league career, meaning they have options and will cost the team a salary of somewhere between 400k-600k.

I do recall reading somewhere that after this season Nick Evans was out of options which would also make him Arby 1 eligible but he's not listed that way at Cots contracts which is where I referenced this post.  Ryota Igarashi, although he was on a two year major league contract he only has two years of service time, if they choose to keep him but  there maybe an out clause at the end of the deal like Takahashi.  

I'm not sure what the average settlement is for arbitration players but last off-season Angel Pagan coming off his first full season and solid numbers (BA .290) recieved almost a 60% increase ( 1.45-3.5M). So despite taking steps back if the Mets were to keep their Arby eligible players I think a 40% increase is a safe budget number. If the Mets kept all four and gave them a 40% increase it would cost them 12.8M ( below is there projected salary after increase).

Pelfrey (5.46M), Pagan (4.9M), Paulino (1.8M), Buchholz (840k), Parnell (660K)

This would commit the Mets to 11 players costing 80.8M. Now add in 14.5M which is 500k for the other 29 spots on the 40man roster and is rounded enough to include minor league contracts and signing bonuses that go against the MLB budget.  This puts the Mets at 95.5M and Alderson said the budget would be around 100-120M.

I would non-tender Pelfrey and Pagan which would free up around 7-9M, giving them overall somewhere between 10-30M to spend (conservatively).  

They could either go after several reasonably priced parts or go all in on Reyes and look for bargains to fill the rest of the holes.