Friday, December 9, 2011

An in-depth look at the budget after recent moves...

Here's a look at the Mets budget after the winter meetings; Alderson has said that he will attempt to keep the budget at 95M entering the season...

Guaranteed contracts:

Johan Santana - $24M
Jason Bay-        $18M
David Wright-   $15M
Frank Francisco- $6M
R.A.Dickey-       $4.75M
Jon Rauch-         $3.5M
D.J. Carrasco-    $1.2M
Tim Dyrdak-       $1M
Total -              $73.45M

Projected Arbitration contracts: Projection from MLBTR

Mike Pelfrey-      $5.8M
Andres Torres-   $2.5M
Ramon Ramirez- $2.3M
Ronny Paulino-   $1.6M
Manny Acosta-   $1.1M
Total-                $13.3M

That's 12 players, the lowest salaried players on the Mets last year made $414k.  These were guys like Duda who had no major league service time and came in from the system.  Guys like Buchholtz who were signed as free agents who were given either minimal major league deals or invites but had service time make around $600k.  The Mets and their creative calculations will be counting the draft, signing bonuses and I'm sure inactive players on the 40 man.

So to fill out the 40 man roster they will have to account for 28 more players, if we round off between league  minimum and minimum veteran salary, $500k seems like a fair number.  If the Mets either leave the roster as it currently stands or just shuffle different players in at the minimum cost, it's going to at least cost 28 x $500k=  $14M

Guaranteed- $73.45M
Arbitration-  $13.3M
Minimums-   $14M
Total-     $100.75M

Basically the budget is already maxed out and even if the team is only going to shuffle minimum contracts to fill holes it's going to be tough to do. For example Cody Ross on an invite with his years of service will cost more then a Mike Baxter. It looks like Paulino could go which if he's replaced at minimum then that frees up approx. $500k.  Mike Pelfrey is the one glaring place where money can be saved, there is absolutely no way Pelf should make anywhere near $5M.

Footnote: When you look at Cots contract spreadsheet you'll see several players without a salary amount, those were players on the inactive roster who never came up, there salaries went against the minor league budget at the level they played.  But Alderson just recently in discussing the budget said he needed to leave himself wiggle room for the draft such as signing bonuses, generally unless it's a major league contract like Mike Pelfrey received they don't go against the major league budget.  Using that type of creative accounting is why I included the entire 40 man, if that's not the case then you could be looking at 13 players at $500K= $6.5M  which is a difference of $7.5M, leaving the overall budget at $93.25M.