|Photo by Michael Baron|
I don't expect the big four to be in the Mets rotation in 2-3 years, the odds against that happening are astronomical. I'm confident that Wheeler and Harvey, barring injury are going to land at the top of the rotation but Mejia and Familia are another story.
By many accounts Mejia and Familia are destine for the pen, possibly as closers. So there's your glut, you don't need two closers, if either prospect was seen long term as a starting pitching then it would make sense to hold onto them. But as a high end reliever, depth is not as valuable to a club as is their value on the market to a club lacking a prospective closer.
Mejia coming off surgery and a failed, albeit rushed and improperly used stint in the majors has little value above his potential.
Familia on the other hand's value is at it's highest; just last year Mack's Mets ranked him the highest at #8, Keith Law, Mets Prospect hub and Toby Hyde all ranked him 10th while Matt Eddy, Jon Sickels and BP didn't have him in the top ten at all. ( this Mets Fever page is a compilation of all the lists).
But after a solid year as a starter in AA Familia has been vaulted to a ranking #3 on some lists, the 22 y/o righty made 17 starts with a 3.49 ERA/ 1.36 WHIP in which he struck out 96 in 87 innings and only walked 35 ( 2.74 BB/SO ratio).
So he has value as a potential starter, but even if club's recognize he's probably going to be a closer, if they don't have a Mejia type prospect then he's going to still have significant value to that club.
In 2014 I see the rotation looking like Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Gee and Fulmer with Mejia as the closer, that leaves Familia as the odd man out. The Mets don't have any top flight power bats in the system, could they lure a club into giving up a big bat that would be ready around 2014 by selling Familia as a starting pitcher and #3 prospect.
He's a nice piece, but I think his value has peaked and he's not necessarily critical to the team's future. As we've seen with FMart and Milledge once that window passes you wish you could get the offers you once passed up...