Sunday, March 4, 2012

Valley Fever Numbers Are In Ike Davis' Favor

Here is the most important thing you need to know about Ike Davis' potential bout with Valley Fever. As per the Arizona Department Of Health Services (source), "Most cases (60%) have no symptoms or only very mild flu-like symptoms and do not see a doctor." Therefore, when the Mets indicate that Ike has experienced no symptoms, its logical to believe them.
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To be fair, Ike basically positioned himself in ground zero for the illness. As of 2007 (which were the most recent statistics I could find), Maricopa County, where Ikes off-season home lies experiences the second highest rate of cases in Arizona, the most heavily effected state in the country. That said, the average risk factor is only 3% (source), meaning this is just more bad luck for the Mets.

Bad luck or not, Ike Davis and the Mets have a major issue to deal with as the 2012 season nears.  This is something the Mets must monitor very closely, something I'm sure is not lost on the team's medical staff.  Will Ike experience any symptoms of the disease, or will be be lucky enough to get by without needing treatment.  Only time will tell, however those who do experience symptoms experience the following:

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With Davis being a seemingly healthy 24 year old, the chances of this getting out of control are fairly minimal. That's not to say that he can't fall victim to the disease's most prevalent symptom, fatigue. With shortness of breath, joint, muscle and chest paint being far less prevalent, fatigue is the symptom which stands the best chance of cause Ike games this season. As Terry Collins said last night, the Mets much ensure that they don't wear Davis down.

Some other important things to consider when judging the severity of this situation.  Patients experiencing symptoms are usually treated with a regiment of antibiotics.  Nearly 76% of those treated with antibiotics are treated for a month or less (source).  Only 10% of those who contract the disease experience serious complications and it proves fatal for only 1% (source).

With all that said, symptoms can take anywhere from 7 to 28 days to manifest themselves (source), so with no way of knowing when Ike contracted the disease, we can assume that he'd be out of the woods in late March, prior to the start of the season.  Until that time we play the waiting game.  The important thing at this point is that Ike is in camp, he's been clear to participate in baseball activities and the team is abreast of the situation.  The numbers are in Ike's favor, so lets just hope the Mets luck changes.  Lord knows its due...

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