Monday, December 31, 2012

A look at the budget, roster and what free agents are left...

The Mets currently are committed to approx. 81.8M for the 2013 season, one of the biggest discrepancies is that although Bay and Wright deferred money, for budgetary purposes the total amount of the deal will count against the annual budget.  This isn't a Mets thing this is how the league operates.

Santana- $  25.5M
Bay-       $  18.1M
Wright-   $  11M
Francisco- $ 6.5M
Buck-       $  6M
Niese-       $ 3M
====================
                  $ 70.1M

Murphy- $ 700k
Davis-    $ 700k
Parnell-  $ 700k
===================
              $ 2.1M

That covers major league contracts and arbitration eligible players, the arbitration figures for some are over estimated.  That leaves 16 roster spots, most of those positions will go to controllable players and invites, if all the spots were filled in this way the cost would be approx. 9.6M.  Some of these type of players would receive as much as 700 k while others would come in under 500k,  so I simply gave them  all a value of 600k.

That puts the Mets budget at approx. 81.8 M ( 70.1 + 2.1 + 9.6), now there is at least 5M cash in deferred payroll even though it won't show up in the budget but it's also difficult to account for things like signing bonuses that go against the budget.

I've seen it reported that the Mets have about 10 M to spend I'm not sure where I'm missing monies, it appears they should have more like 20-30M since they said the budget could go up to 105-110M.

Regardless of how much they have to spend I'm not sure if what players are left are worth spending on, for example how many win shares is Scott Hairston worth over a guy they can pickup on a minor league deal.  Instead of spending just to spend I may fill out the roster with invites...

If the Mets didn't bring in another player here is how I think the roster would shape up in spring training.

C- Buck
1B- Davis
2B- Murphy
SS- Tejada
3B- Wright
RF- Duda
CF- Nieuwenhuis
LF- Baxter

Bench- Turner, Cowgill, Valdespin, Hicks, Lutz

Rotation- Santana, Harvey, Niese, Gee and Hefner
Pen- Francisco, Parnell, Edgin, Mejia, Laffey, Ramirez and Burke

Now I just don't see any players left I would even give two year deals to at this point, so here are a few ideas I have to compete for roster spots.

Bring in Rick Ankiel to compete for the center field position, I don't think Kirk should be just given the position and there is no one on the roster to challenge him.  Ankiel was released mid-season and wouldn't need more then a minor league deal, maybe he returns to the power hitting center fielder he was St. Louis and if not he didn't cost much.

Go after either Austin Kearns or Ben Francisco both will end up signing somewhere on minor league deals and really how much more valuable is Scott Hairston then either of these guys.

As far as a back-up catcher there two catchers that would fit and will probably sign minor league deals, Chris Snyder and Matt Treanor.  While neither are that appealing they might bring more to the table then Recker.

Finally in regard to position players I would try to bring in one super utility player on a minor league deal to challenge Hicks or Lutz for a bench spot from the group of Mark DeRosa, Ryan Raburn and Ryan Theriot.

In regards to the positional portion of the roster I think any of the holes can be filled with players on minor league deals since there isn't the significant upgrades available through free agency.

I'm not willing to give a starting pitcher two years, not only would they block Wheeler but they simply aren't worth it.  I think you may have to give a starter a one year deal, either returning Chris Young or a guy like Dallas Brandon or Tim Stauffer. 

I think the pen needs a set-up guy, someone with experience closing, normally I would expect someone like that to cost a major league deal but there are so many of these types still looking the Mets maybe able to sign one to a minor league deal with an invite, someone like Matt Capps.

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