Monday, January 14, 2013

Updated budget forecast Mets math style...

I said in this post two weeks ago that by my accounting the Mets should have almost 30M to spend but are acting like a team out of money and most speculate that they have about 10M to spend.  Part of my math is my fault in that I drastically underestimated what the arbitration eligible players will receive.  As I stated in that post and it's considered normal procedure throughout the league is that the budget will include all of Wright/Bay's salaries despite them taking deferments.  What I forgot to account for is Santana/Bay's 2014 buyouts which the club has acknowledged they will count against this years budget.  So here is an update of the budget.  

Santana- $ 25.5M
Bay- $ 18.1M
Wright- $ 11M
Francisco- $ 6.5M
Buck- $ 6M
Niese- $ 3M
Total 74M

2014 Buyouts
Santana- $5.5
Bay- $3M
Total 8M

Projected Arbitration figures

Murphy- 3M
Davis- 2.8M
Parnell- 1.5M
Total 7.3M

Source of Arby projection this post ESPN NY 

That leaves 16 spots to complete the roster if all holes were filled by controllable players and minor league invites then they would cost between 490k to 800k.  Taking an average of 650k for 16 players the cost would be  10.4M.

So a more accurate assessment of the budget would look like this:


It's been said that the Mets are willing to allow the budget to increase to 110M but want to hold some monies back in case they want to trade at the deadline.  So this is how they end up with the figure being 10M that they can spend.  It is a bit of creative accounting to include both next year's buyouts and the total contracts of Bay/Wright but it also means they have essentially no commitments next year aside from Wright, Niese, Murphy, Davis and Parnell.  Dillon Gee, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner and Mike Baxter will become first time arby eligible.